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Initially, Donald Trump appeared to embrace a strong position on the Ukrainian conflict. After making threats of "serious repercussions" last August should Putin continued obstructing truce talks, Trump finally introduced considerable penalties on Russia's primary petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move substantially affected Putin's ability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

However, with his newly presented comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, that was developed by US and Russian diplomats excluding Ukraine's or EU involvement, Trump has apparently reverted to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Aggression

This plan would in practice reward Putin for attacking Ukraine while leaving the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Although bold statements that "The nation's independence will be confirmed", large portions of the plan actually weaken that essential autonomy. This constitutes a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his corporate experience, the former president persists to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a basic border issue, implying giving Putin a section of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the president. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not only about occupying a charred area of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an enticing example for the Russian citizens of the democratic governance that his increasing dictatorship withholds them.

Territorial Concessions

Although maintaining in status the presently separated Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the plan would force Ukraine to give up the whole Donetsk region. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been failed to seize in exceeding a decade of conflict, this surrender would leave Ukraine's military defenses critically compromised.

The area is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that constitute a critical obstacle to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, leaving Putin a unobstructed route to Kyiv should he subsequently choose to resume the hostilities.

Defense Restrictions

Additionally, in a move that would facilitate additional conflict easier for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to cut the numbers of its military from their present 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a limit of 600,000. Importantly, Trump's plan imposes no similar restrictions on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's efforts to characterize the nation's democratically elected leadership as extremists, Trump's plan declares: "Every radical doctrine and actions must be opposed and banned." As if to highlight this point, it requires that "The nation will hold elections in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump imposes no obligation that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the initiative includes Russia promise not to "enter bordering nations" and to "incorporate in legislation its policy of non-violence towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". But considering that the Russian leadership has breached similar treaties in the history – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to recognize the nation's borders in exchange for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of occupied areas in the Donbas to the government – how should anyone have confidence in this commitment this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on international protection assurances. While the initiative promises a "immediate joint defense action" should Russia restart its aggression, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the specifics vary from vague to troubling. The plan would not just block Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude alliance nations from stationing military personnel on Ukraine's soil, thus precluding the reassurance force, likely led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been relying to prevent Putin from restoring his diminished troops, rearming, and reinvading.

International Concern

An additional parallel deal reportedly would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any future "significant, intentional, and continuous armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack jeopardizing the tranquility of the Western nations." That suggests a defense action. However in contrast to a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary deterrent against additional invasion – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the dedication of Western powers, such as the US administration, to respond militarily to Putin's aggression, something they have {not